El euríbor retrocede desde máximos, pero volverá a subir en agosto

The euríbor, a key indicator for mortgage rates in the Eurozone, has retreated from its recent peaks but is poised for another rise in August. The 12-month mortgage index closed at 2.95% yesterday, aligning with the provisional average for August at the same level due to the absence of a monthly closing session. Excluding a last-minute dramatic turn, the euríbor is expected to record its second consecutive advance and the fifth in the past six months.

This outcome reflects the clear anticipation of a 25 basis point increase in the cost of money to 2.5% at the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on September 10th. Persistent tensions in the Middle East and inflationary pressures have led the market to bet on sustained high interest rates over an extended period. However, the euríbor has shown signs of relaxation in the last two sessions following its first breach of the 3% mark in nearly two years during August.

Depending on the evolution of inflation and the global geopolitical situation, it remains to be seen if this level will be sustained above this line. Currently, mortgagors with variable rates face a new challenge, as the monthly euríbor average sits significantly above the 2.11% recorded in August last year. If the month concludes at the present levels, a median 25-year variable-rate mortgage of 150,000 euros with a 1% differential and annual review would increase by about 67 euros per month, reaching 912 euros annually.

Under the same conditions, a loan that is reviewed every six months would rise by roughly 67 euros per month. Looking ahead to September, the reference point will be the level of 2.17% from the same month last year, suggesting that the monthly rate will rise again unless there is a dramatic change in the scenario.