Los bonos a corto, refugio en época de incertidumbre

A short-term bonds are being promoted as a refuge in times of uncertainty, according to analysts at MuzinichandCo. They describe the recent movements of the US 30-year bond and other bonds as if they were climbing a mechanical ladder that is actually descending. The 30-year bond soared to a record high of 5.3% in the past week, the highest level since 2007.

The 10-year bond of the world's largest economy also rose to 4.72%, while the 2-year bond, which is most sensitive to Federal Reserve decisions, climbed to 4.18%. This trend is global, and although yields have slightly eased since the Jackson Hole meeting, the situation remains highly uncertain.

Experts believe it may be time for investors to rethink their strategies and look for opportunities in shorter-term bond segments. UBS highlights the attractiveness of high-quality short and medium-term fixed income compared to the rising yields of long-term bonds, which are more exposed to tax concerns, inflation uncertainty, and lower liquidity.

MuzinichandCo suggests that selecting bonds from emerging markets and high-yield markets can help avoid sovereign balance sheet deterioration, excess supply in long-term maturities, exposure to central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, while benefiting from the global improvement in corporate profits.

BlackRock analysts argue that in a five-year or longer strategic horizon, investors should opt for short and medium-term government bonds. However, regardless of the investment period and asset type, investors must be aware of the volatile market conditions, such as the record US public debt issuance of $40 trillion (over $34 trillion in euros), the Federal Reserve's new communication policy that sharply cuts interest rate predictions, and the Treasury's emergency bond purchases seen as a patch to hide the sun with a finger.

Additionally, the record-breaking $190 billion in AI-related debt issued in the first seven months of 2026 adds to the uncertainty, as these issuances directly compete with state debt.