How El Niño's Record Ocean Warming Could Threaten US
Record ocean temperatures combined with El Niño could influence weather patterns across the U.S., according to experts.
Record sea-surface temperatures and the strengthening El Niño phenomenon could shape weather patterns across the United States during the fall and winter, according to forecasters. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the global ocean temperature reached 21.1 degrees Celsius (70 degrees Fahrenheit) on Saturday, narrowly surpassing the previous daily record of 21.09 C set in March 2024.
This record-breaking temperature, typically highest in March and April, occurred in August, indicating a potentially significant climate shift. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a more than 90 percent chance of a strong El Niño event during the fall and winter. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva attributes the record to El Niño's vast coverage in the Pacific, which makes it easier to break records when the pattern is active.
He also noted that unusually high temperatures in the Atlantic contributed to the global average record. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster, emphasized that the consequences for North America depend on the interaction between the ocean warmth and the strengthening El Niño. Warm ocean water increases evaporation, adding moisture to the atmosphere, while El Niño can alter the jet stream, affecting storm paths and precipitation patterns.
Areas like California, the Southwest, and the Southeast could see more precipitation and cloudier conditions during El Niño, while Southern and Eastern states might experience longer periods of cloudy weather. While warm oceans don't guarantee more storms, they can provide storms with additional moisture. The location and intensity of the jet stream and storm track will ultimately determine how the moisture is distributed and where it falls.
El Niño forms when parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific heat up beyond normal levels, affecting weather patterns globally. Its impact on North America is more noticeable during colder months, with increased storm and precipitation opportunities in the Southern U.S. and above-average temperatures in parts of the northern U.S. and southern Canada.
However, no two El Niño events produce identical results, making precise predictions challenging. Despite this, a particularly strong El Niño can become a major force shaping the large-scale weather pattern in North America.
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