US-Canada trade war: Crude, minerals and more - How Canada could hammer American business and jobs

The ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada is expected to have significant consequences for American businesses and jobs. As President Donald Trump pushes for higher tariffs, Canada's strategic response could lead to economic hardship for the US, particularly in states that share borders with Canada. Canada supplies nearly 60% of the crude oil imports to the US, and imposing taxes or restrictions on this energy source could raise costs for both businesses and consumers.

Critical minerals like potash, lithium, and nickel, which are essential for industries like fertilizer production and battery manufacturing, are primarily sourced from Canada. Any tariffs on these minerals could disrupt supply chains and harm US industries reliant on them. In retaliation for US tariffs, Canadian provinces have banned US alcohol products, causing a 78% drop in US wine exports to Canada and a loss of about $357 million for the US wine industry in 2025.

Additionally, Canadians are boycotting travel to the US, leading to a $2.35 billion loss for the US economy in 2025. The 50% tariffs on Canadian auto parts could disrupt the North American auto industry, potentially resulting in job losses and increased production costs. Canadian Premier Doug Ford has hinted at a potential 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the US, and Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada does not want the energy trade with the US to cease.

Canada's influence in the US economy is substantial, as it is the top market for exports for 26 American states and the top three for 45 of them.