트럼프, 왜 다시 ‘김정은 카드’ 꺼냈나…북한은 호응할까

Donald Trump, the former US President, has once again shown strong enthusiasm for reopening talks with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un. Following the suspension of joint US-ROK military exercises, Kim Jong-un declared that he has "responded" to the North Korean leader's overtures, and there have been reports suggesting that a push to engage in dialogue could come ahead of the upcoming APEC Economic Leaders' Summit in Asia.

This move comes as the US midterm elections approach and the Trump administration seeks to achieve a tangible diplomatic success by directly establishing North-South Korea diplomatic relations, a pursuit that began during his first term. However, North Korea's willingness to engage in dialogues may be constrained by its strengthened ties with Russia and China, which could reduce the urgency for negotiations with the US.

In this context, North Korean diplomacy could serve as a new avenue for achieving foreign policy accomplishments and portraying the US as a peacemaker ahead of the midterms. Reports indicate that North Korea may be open to engaging in talks, as evidenced by the signals sent during Trump's visit to Asia in October, but logistical constraints prevented these talks from taking place.

US officials have acknowledged that North Korea signaled openness to talks, but the tight schedule prevented it from moving forward. The changing geopolitical landscape of North Korea might actually enhance the prospects for the talks. During the periods of 2018-2019, the lifting of sanctions was critical, but now, with Russia and China strengthening their military and economic relations, and China's influence increasing, the stakes for Kim Jong-un in engaging with Trump have diminished.

Kim Jong-un's objectives in the talks may differ from previous negotiations, focusing on maintaining his nuclear status quo and securing the status of a nuclear-possessing nation, rather than the exchange of complete denuclearization and sanctions relief. However, these projections remain speculative. North Korean Deputy Prime Minister Kim Yong-chol's recent message expressed no interest in the US-ROK joint exercises' reduction and a similarly cold reaction to any prospect of communication with North and US leaders, suggesting that without assured outcomes, it would be unlikely for North Korea to accept an invitation to the negotiating table.

The role of China could prove to be a significant wildcard, as Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent visit to the US, where he discussed the North-South Korea talks with Trump, could play a crucial role in the talks' success.