MetMalaysia: Over 90pc chance of ‘Super El Nino’ by year-end, could rival 1997–1998 extreme

PUTRAJAYA, Aug 19 — Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip revealed that the chances of an El Nino event reaching the 'very strong' or 'Super El Nino' category between October and December 2026 have increased to over 90 percent. This forecast is based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) since mid-year, along with recent sea surface temperatures that have exceeded the average by more than 1.8 degrees Celsius.

Dr Hisham stated that the event could potentially rival, or even surpass, the extreme El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. These historical events saw temperatures as high as 40.1 degrees Celsius in Chuping, Perlis, and 39.3 degrees Celsius in Batu Embun, Pahang. The 2026-2027 El Nino, if as strong, could bring hotter and drier conditions, along with prolonged periods of rainfall scarcity, particularly during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) and inter-monsoon period.

The current global climate patterns suggest that this El Nino could be one of the most intense ever recorded. Additionally, the forecast anticipates a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring alongside the El Nino, which could further exacerbate the region's dry conditions. This combination of phenomena could lead to more pronounced heatwaves and extended dry spells in Malaysia and other parts of South-East Asia.

MetMalaysia will continue to closely monitor the situation and its potential impacts on the region, particularly the heightened risk of forest fires during a positive IOD phase.