MetMalaysia: Over 90pc chance of ‘Super El Nino’ by year-end, could rival 1997–1998 extreme

PUTRAJAYA, Aug 19 — The chances of a 'Super El Nino' event occurring in Malaysia by year-end have surged above 90%, according to Director-General of the Malaysian Meteorological Department, Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip. The forecast is based on a recent rise in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) and elevated sea surface temperatures, which are currently more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the yearly average.

Dr Hisham stated that El Nino appears to be intensifying, with the peak expected by the end of 2026. He warned that this event could potentially match or surpass the intensity of the extreme El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The latter two years saw temperatures rise to a record 40.1 degrees Celsius in Perlis and 39.3 degrees Celsius in Pahang, respectively.

The MetMalaysia director-general also highlighted the potential impact of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in conjunction with the El Nino, which could further exacerbate the dry and hot conditions across the region, including Malaysia. He assured that the department would continue to monitor the situation closely, keeping an eye on weather patterns and the risk of forest fires.