Kommentar: Das Schreckensszenario, das Putin (noch) nicht ausspricht

The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been warning of a potential mobilization in Russia this fall for several days. Many experts in both the West and Russia share this assessment. It is believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will wait until the Duma election on September 20th before sending hundreds of thousands of fresh soldiers to the front, according to reports.

However, Putin may not find satisfaction in the slow progress on the battlefield in Ukraine. His goal of capturing Donbass appears as distant as ever. His army continues to lose soldiers at a rate faster than they can be replenished. Given these circumstances, a new wave of mobilization seems plausible. Triggering an increase in casualty numbers would be another costly mistake for Putin – the first was the original decision to invade the neighboring country.

Instead of bringing about a ceasefire and ending the hopeless war, he would escalate the conflict. This would result in even higher casualty figures on both sides, yet still fail to achieve his war objectives.