Comment: The horror scenario that Putin (still) does not articulate
Instead of a ceasefire, Putin seems to be counting on escalation: a mobilization in Russia is expected in the fall. It would be his second major mistake after the invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been warning for days about a potential new mobilization in Russia this fall. Many experts in both the West and Russia share this assessment. Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting for the Duma election on September 20th before sending hundreds of thousands of fresh soldiers to the front, according to reports.
It's clear that Putin cannot be satisfied with the slow progress on the battlefield in Ukraine. His goal of capturing Donbass seems as distant as ever. His army is losing soldiers at a rate that far exceeds its ability to recruit new ones. In light of this, a new wave of conscription appears plausible. Putin would be driving up the casualty numbers to a dangerous degree - a second grave mistake in this war, following the initial decision to invade the neighboring country.
Instead of achieving a ceasefire and ending the seemingly hopeless conflict, he would escalate the situation further. This would result in even higher casualty counts on both sides, without achieving his war objectives.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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