Comment: The horror scenario that Putin (still) does not articulate

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been warning of a new mobilisation in Russia in the autumn for days. This assessment is shared by many experts in the West and in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is just waiting for the Duma election on 20 September before he will call up hundreds of thousands of fresh soldiers and send them to the front, it is said.

Actually, Putin cannot be satisfied with the slow progress on the battlefield in Ukraine. His goal of capturing the Donbass seems as far away as ever. His army has been losing more soldiers than it can recruit for months. Against this background, a new recruitment wave appears plausible.

A mobilisation would, however, be Putin's second costly mistake in this war - after the original decision to invade the neighbouring country. Instead of bringing about a ceasefire and an end to the hopeless war, he would be seeking escalation. He would drive up the number of casualties on both sides even further - and would probably still not achieve his war goals.