Immobilien: Babyboomer-Effekt am Immobilienmarkt – Werden Häuser bald günstiger?

A looming warning suggests millions of homes will soon flood the real estate market as baby boomers age, become care-dependent or pass away. Multiple studies for countries like Germany and France predict this scenario, dubbed a "Silver Tsunami," where a wave of sales could crash prices. The term references the silver-haired generation, which typically owns their homes, and the tsunami due to the shockwave of sales.

Thus, is Germany facing a wave of home sales, and what does this mean for the market? The Handelsblatt provides an overview of key facts, expert assessments, and regions potentially affected. Indeed, baby boomers, the birth peak from 1946 to 1964, dominate the market. In the decades following the post-war economic boom and reunification, they amassed single-family homes, double-family homes, and owner-occupied apartments, or may need to part with them due to health, financial, or familial reasons in the coming decade or two.

The figures are similarly staggering elsewhere in Europe. By 2040, France alone will inherit €9000 billion, with 60% in real estate, according to the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. The study notes, "€5400 billion in real estate will be inherited in the next 15 years," as Théo Iberrakene, co-author, explains. "The great generational shift represents the largest transfer of wealth in history, as the Baby Boomers disappear," it states.

In Germany, roughly one in three homes is owned by baby boomers, according to Jacasa's nationwide average of 4.8 million houses and apartments. This theory predicts that a massive influx of properties will hit the market. Experts say this will primarily increase pressure on the market in rural areas, as most inherited properties in France are in the countryside.

Prices in these regions could drop by 30 to 50%, predicts real estate specialist Nicolas Jeffs in "Le Figaro." In France, heirs have a €100,000 inheritance tax exemption, so many must sell quickly to cover debts, making them eager for price reductions. Thus, the supply will increase while demand drops due to population decline. Demographic change already affects housing prices.

Thomas Beyerle, professor of real estate economics and research at Hochschule Biberach, explains, "The demographic shift is now impacting housing markets." Projections suggest Germany could see a 10% reduction in people by 2040. In 2035, one in four residents will be 67 or older, a 2022 RWI study found. This has impacted housing markets, with a study from 2022 by the RWI – Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research finding that rising older populations dampened apartment and house prices by about 12% and 7% between 2008 and 2020, respectively.

However, the market still experienced a significant price boom during this phase. Experts from the Hamburg World Economy Institute (HWWI), commissioned by the Postbank, found that by 2035, German home prices will increase by 0.4% annually, inflation-adjusted, across all 400 German districts and city-free cities. Nonetheless, many experts are skeptical of another real estate bubble.

Reiner Braun, chief of analysis house Empirica, says the phase of extraordinary price increases from low-interest rates will likely not return. According to the Bertelsmann Foundation, Germany's population will only grow by 0.6% from 2020 to 2040. Population declines are expected only in eastern federal states and Saarland. Other regions may see population growth until 2040.

In eastern Germany, the population will shrink, particularly in rural areas. This will lead to falling home prices. Exceptions are most major and medium-sized cities. Overall, the Ifo Institute projects a wide range of population numbers by 2070, from 63.9 to 86.5 million, depending on migration levels.