Mutual suspicion, not ‘third party’, the real threat to BN-PN pact, says analyst

An analyst contends that mutual suspicion and the fear of one partner using the other to strengthen themselves pose the greatest threat to the cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), not the presence of a "third party." Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting explained that while BN requires PN for electoral strength, Umno may eventually question whether the partnership has built a force capable of replacing it.

He told FMT that PN faces the same dilemma; if it cooperates too closely with BN, it might strengthen PN's electoral prospects but also dilute the unique identity that led voters to choose PN.

The analyst's remarks followed Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki's caution to any party considering cooperation with Umno: they must be wary of being influenced by third parties. Asyraf pointed to Umno's Muafakat Nasional pact with PAS, which he said failed due to interference from another party like Bersatu. Sabri countered that "genuinely strong" alliances should not be threatened by the presence of other political players; BN and PN's vulnerability lies in their shared mutual suspicion.

He argued that Umno knows PN is no longer the political force it once could dismiss, while PN recognizes that Umno still possesses something it cannot easily create overnight: a nationwide political brand, organizational machinery, and decades of institutional memory. "They need each other, which is precisely the problem. Each side needs the other, but neither wants the other to become too powerful," Sabri noted.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat warned that Wawasan, a third-party Islamist party, remains a threat to Umno, naturally seen as a potential replacement for Bersatu. Wong observed that Wawasan is ideologically similar to Umno and could be seen as a direct challenge. He added that PAS would likely choose Wawasan over Umno if Umno or Wawasan supported a prime ministerial candidate, as Wawasan is weaker and more controllable.

Wong highlighted that Malay parties are competing for the same voter base, making them hyper-competitive and distrustful of each other. He stated that they are united by external threats, such as when Umno and PAS were both in opposition, and often rely on culture war symbols to rally voters. Wong concluded that as more parties emerge, it becomes harder for them to maintain the narrative of Malay unity, as some parties may gang up against others.