Iran's leaders think they have Trump cornered, but their strategy carries great risks

Iranian leaders feel they are close to a victory in their conflict with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz. They believe military pressure will force the U.S. to accept their control over the crucial waterway, which handles a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Iran's leaders are aware of the diminishing stockpiles of advanced U.S. weapons and the unpopularity of the war among Americans.

They also know that closing the strait would raise global gas and other goods' prices before U.S. congressional elections in November. Iran's economy has suffered due to a U.S. blockade, and protests against the government have erupted. Iran is negotiating with Oman to manage the strait, but insists that the U.S. must end the war, lift its naval blockade, and release frozen assets before the strait can reopen.

Iran's leaders view this as a strategic lever for deterrence and reshaping security rules in the Persian Gulf.