Iran’s Leaders Think They Have Trump Cornered, but Their Strategy Carries Great Risks

Iran's leaders appear to believe they have President Donald Trump cornered, but their strategy comes with significant risks. By focusing on military pressure, they hope to force the United States to concede control over the vital Strait of Hormuz, a waterway essential for global energy trade. This tactic is supported by Iran's awareness of diminishing U.S. weapons stockpiles and the unpopularity of the ongoing war among Americans.

Iran's leaders argue that as long as the strait remains closed, U.S. consumers will continue to face high prices for goods, which is beneficial ahead of November's congressional elections. They also acknowledge the potential for their Houthi allies in Yemen to further exacerbate the conflict and disrupt other major trade routes.

Consequently, Iran's leaders expect U.S. President Trump to compromise. Trump has made contradictory statements, threatening escalation while simultaneously claiming talks are progressing. Iran's economy has suffered due to a U.S. blockade, leading to mass protests in the past and ongoing public unrest. Iran's leaders have been watching how Trump's brief Middle East visit played out, as it demonstrated the challenges of waging war.

Iran has proposed a deal with Oman to manage the strait, but Tehran insists the international waterway will not reopen until the U.S. ends the war, lifts its naval blockade, withdraws its military from the area, compensates Iran for war damages, lifts sanctions, and releases frozen assets. Analysts argue that Iran's effective control over the strait gives it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries, which could secure its security.

Controlling even a portion of the strait would be a major triumph for Iran, a loss for the U.S., and a troubling precedent for global norms on freedom of navigation.