In Gaza and Lebanon, Netanyahu is betting that Trump has run out of steam

The Israeli security agency, Shin Bet, has cautioned that Hamas plans to exploit the roadmap for implementing the next phase of US President Donald Trump's Gaza plan to limit Israel's military freedom of action. According to Shin Bet Director David Zini, Hamas views the proposed demilitarization process as a tactical opportunity to purchase time and constrain Israel, rather than as a genuine path towards disarmament.

Zini warned that Hamas may drag out the process until after Israel's upcoming October elections, hoping to prevent the resumption of military operations during that period. Israel has yet to formally approve the roadmap, with security cabinet ministers expressing opposition to a proposed 14-day preparatory period before implementation, citing concerns about restrictions on targeted strikes against Hamas operatives.

The Israeli demand for genuine and verifiable demilitarization of Gaza contrasts with the Trump administration and its Board of Peace's proposal for a phased process involving Hamas disarmament, a Palestinian technocratic administration, an International Stabilization Force, and further Israeli withdrawals. The 15-point roadmap published last week calls for both sides to complete outstanding commitments before mechanisms for implementing Phase 2 are finalized.

However, Israel has yet to sign or formally approve the demilitarization roadmap, with both sides continuing to disagree over the pace and conditions of the next phase.