Discarded SpaceX rocket set for 5,400mph collision with the moon

A drifting SpaceX rocket is on track to collide with the Moon, potentially creating a bright flash visible with sensitive telescopes, according to a recent study. The Falcon 9 upper stage, left over from the January 15, 2025 launch of the Firefly Blue Ghost-1 lander, is set to impact the lunar surface on August 5, 2026. The collision is expected to occur near the Einstein and Bell craters along the lunar limb.

Using physics simulations, researchers predict the debris plume's central ejecta spike will reach 47 miles to 60 miles (75 kilometers to 100 kilometers) high, making it several orders of magnitude brighter than the dark sky background for the first few minutes after impact. While the plume's brightness may be optimistic, researchers see it as a rare opportunity to study lunar ejecta-plume science and validate models for future lunar missions.