Victorian election 2026: Concern and scepticism among Labor MPs as new poll shows party trailing One Nation

Labor MPs in Victoria are expressing both skepticism and serious concern over a new poll that shows the party trailing behind One Nation by a significant margin. According to the DemosAU/PremierNational poll, Labor's primary vote has dropped to an all-time low of just 18%, placing the party in third place behind the Coalition's 33% and One Nation's 21%. The Greens have seen an increase in their primary vote to 17%, up three points since September.

The poll indicates that the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party preferred basis, with a 56-44 advantage compared to September's 52-48. If the poll were replicated on election night, many contests would be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation, likely resulting in a clear Coalition majority. George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU, stated that if this were to happen, One Nation would need to perform exceptionally well to have any chance of winning, as Labor and Greens preferences would likely flow to the Liberals.

Hasanakos double, triple, and quadruple-checked the poll, which was based on 1,562 respondents, an effective sample of 818, and had a margin of error of 3.4%. Ben Carroll, the Labor leader, refused to comment on his concern about the poll during a press conference in South Melbourne. However, he emphasized his focus on fighting for working people during the November 28 election.

The result has sparked concerns within the Labor caucus, with some MPs questioning the party's strategy, particularly its focus on crime. Several MPs have expressed anger and deflation over the situation, with one saying that the campaign is in freefall and about to get worse. The opposition leader, Jess Wilson, echoed these sentiments, stating that her party is focused on "getting tough on crime" by introducing Aidan's Law, a proposed law to toughen sentencing for attacks on people who step in to protect others.