U.S. consumer prices seen rising 3.8% year-on-year in October - Truflation

U.S. consumer prices are projected to increase by 3.8% year-on-year in October, according to Truflation predictions. This is a slight increase from the 3.7% year-on-year growth seen in September, as reported by official government data. The rise is primarily driven by surging energy costs due to the ongoing Iran war. While headline inflation is moderating, the inflation pipeline remains active, with energy and tariffs supporting renewed goods inflation.

The core gauge, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, is expected to stand at 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Higher retail prices are anticipated, partially offset by stable service costs and declining grocery prices due to retailer discounting and improving supplies. Energy prices are projected to rise by 20.7% compared to last year, with gasoline prices expected to climb by 37.7%.

The outcome of the Labor Department's monthly consumer-price index on Tuesday is crucial, as it could influence Federal Reserve interest rate policy in December and beyond.