Spain’s right retains clear majority in poll as Socialists close gap on PP

Spain's center-right opposition People's Party (PP) maintains a two-point lead over Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists (PSOE) in a new poll, but gains by the far-right Vox party would give the right a comfortable majority in the upcoming November 29 general election. Conducted by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER, the survey projects that the PP, Vox, and the Union del Pueblo Navarro (UPN) would secure roughly half of the vote, winning more than 190 seats combined.

A majority in Spain's 350-seat lower house requires 176 seats. The race for the largest party seat is closer, with the PP projected to win 31.9% of the vote and 129 seats, down eight from the previous Congress. The PSOE has gained 1.8 percentage points since the last poll, with projections of 119 seats, down two. The vote share gap is within the poll's margin of error.

The poll was conducted from November 2-4, following the tragic train collision in Urda, which killed 69 people on the Madrid-Seville high-speed line. The final interviews were completed after Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned. The PSOE has gained ground compared to the previous survey, while PP support remained steady and Vox saw a nearly one-point decline. The survey cannot establish the exact impact of the crash or resignation on voting intentions.

Despite its slight dip in the latest poll, Vox is poised to make the biggest gains since the 2023 election. Santiago Abascal's party is projected to increase its seat count from 33 to 61, with as many as 15% of PP supporters potentially switching to Vox. The PSOE is losing some of its 2023 voters to the PP but is gaining support from left-leaning voters, with about one in four former Sumar alliance supporters now considering voting for the PSOE.

Turnout could still play a role, as only 68% of PSOE voters say they are certain to vote, nearly seven points lower than the PP voter turnout confidence level.