GOP Senate Seats Most at Risk in 2028 After Democrats’ Blue Wave
Of the GOP Senate seats up for election in 2028, Democrats stand the greatest chance at flipping three of them.
As newly elected members of Congress gathered in Washington on Monday, the midterms have already altered the political terrain, including which Republican-held Senate seats could face challenges in 2028. All 435 House and Senate seats will be on the ballot that year. Certain Senate seats are especially susceptible following the recent midterms, where Democrats gained control of the U.S. Senate and House.
Notable shifts occurred in traditionally Republican states, such as Texas and South Carolina, with Democrats winning the U.S. Senate seats from James Talarico and Annie Andrews, respectively. However, several key Senate races remain undecided, including Alaska and Mississippi. Out of the Republican Senate seats up for election in 2028, Democrats have the greatest chance of flipping three: Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, and Ted Budd of North Carolina.
Political science professor David Schultz from Hamline University explained that these individuals are in danger due to various factors. Grassley, the longest-serving Republican senator, is 93 years old and would turn 95 by the time he faces re-election. If he ran for another term, he would exceed 100 years of age, making his re-election highly unlikely.
Additionally, if he resigns before the end of the year, Iowa law would allow Governor Kim Reynolds to appoint a replacement. Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson narrowly won his 2022 re-election bid with a 1-point margin. He has hinted at retiring, and a tough campaign could prompt him to step down. North Carolina Senator Ted Budd also faces a formidable challenge if he decides to run for re-election.
North Carolina is now considered a swing state, and Budd narrowly won his 2022 election by a three-point margin. Other Republican senators up for election in 2028 may also be vulnerable, such as Lisa Murkowski from Alaska, Jerry Moran from Kansas, and Ashley Moody, who recently won a special election in Florida. The midterm results may influence the strategies of Republican senators preparing for re-election in 2028, as they may focus on issues that resonated with voters this cycle and distance themselves from unpopular national party policies.
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