El Niño threatens Nigeria’s food supply, raises farm costs – IFAD

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has issued a warning that the developing El Niño weather phenomenon could cause agricultural drought, declining crop yields, and worsen food insecurity in Nigeria and other countries across the Sahel. The report, titled 'Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile,' identified a potential agricultural drought corridor stretching from Senegal through Nigeria to Ethiopia and Sudan.

It warned that suppressed rainfall during major El Niño events had previously caused localised rainfall deficits of between 20 and 35 per cent across the Sahel, potentially translating into yield reductions of 15 to 30 per cent for major rain-fed staple crops, including millet, sorghum, and maize. Although the forecast for the West Africa-Sahel corridor carries a lower level of confidence, the warning raises concerns for Nigeria, where millions of households depend on rain-fed agriculture and remain exposed to changes in rainfall patterns.

The report also estimated that the 2026/2027 El Niño could cost the global economy as much as $11tn over the next five to six years, covering direct agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure, and wider economic disruptions.

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