2027 Could Be Hottest Year on Record, Warns UN

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned that 2027 could mark the hottest year on record, with an anticipated El Niño event driving further extreme heat. This warning emerged as world leaders convened for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo emphasized that El Niño acts as a "risk multiplier," intensifying heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms beyond historical norms.

A new WMO report on the state of the climate revealed that each of the past 12 years has been the warmest since records began, with the last four years ranking as the four warmest on record. Global average surface temperatures from January to September 2026 were approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13 degrees. This suggests the world may have surpassed the critical 1.5-degree threshold, which was last crossed in 2024.

El Niño's impact has been severe this year, with extreme weather wreaking havoc globally. According to preliminary estimates, heatwaves, drought, and wildfires in Europe resulted in over 30,000 excess deaths. In India, extreme heat in April affected 146.5 million people, while more than 1,300 individuals perished in the Himalayas due to a glacier collapse and flash flood in August.

The report also highlighted that the global mean sea level reached a record high this year, potentially linked to the developing El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to be the strongest since 1950. WMO experts attribute this sea level rise to the El Niño climate phenomenon, which shifts rainfall from land to sea.

The developing El Niño, projected to persist into the following year, is likely to be the most intense in five decades, according to Saulo. She explained that El Niño, occurring every few years, triggers extreme weather and rising temperatures. However, climate change also contributed to the rising water levels, as glaciers worldwide lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, equating to a sea level increase of one millimeter.

John Kennedy, head of Climate Information at the WMO, noted that the additional energy, heat, and moisture from El Niño exacerbate the existing risks associated with long-term climate change. While he acknowledged that El Niño events have become more frequent in the 20th and 21st centuries, he did not directly attribute this trend to climate change.