What a Democratic-controlled US Congress can and cannot do in the Middle East

The recent Democratic victory in the US midterm elections may complicate President Donald Trump's Middle East policy, but a significant change in US approach in the region is not imminent. The new majority can begin questioning previously unchallenged assumptions and testing Washington's commitment. In particular, Tehran and Gulf nations will be keen to know if Democrats can rein in Trump and if this political shift will endure beyond his term.

Despite Trump's position as commander-in-chief, control of both chambers enables Democrats to conduct investigations, set the debate's terms, and make his decisions more costly. They can limit his choices even if they cannot eliminate them altogether. The Iran conflict will be the primary area of focus. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated operations on February 28 without congressional approval, leading to increased costs and complications.

Gas prices have reached record highs, with diesel increasing by 71% year-over-year. A recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey revealed that 68% of Americans believe the war is not worth it, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval at a record low of 31%. Democrats are likely to question the war's costs and objectives.

However, the key test will be whether they employ appropriations to restrict operations. Historically, Democrats have been cautious. Following their 2006 win over Iraq, President George W. Bush deployed a surge in 2007. Congress halted Vietnam funding in 1973, but only after the Paris Peace Accords mandated troop withdrawal, and by then, most troops had already left.

While Democrats can make the Iran war more difficult to justify, forcing Trump to end it entirely remains a different challenge.