An unfolding disaster in Alaska could cost Democrats the Senate

Democrats require a net gain of four Senate seats to gain control of the upper chamber of Congress. However, Alaska, a state essential to achieving that goal, is facing significant turmoil as election day approaches on November 3rd. Republicans have been alleging for months that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from a remote fishing village, launched a Senate campaign to confuse voters and siphon votes from his Republican incumbent brother, Dan S. Sullivan.

While Dan J. Sullivan denied these claims, a report published by the New York Times on October 28th revealed that Democratic campaign operatives quietly recruited potential candidates, including Dan J. Sullivan, who could potentially sabotage Dan S. Sullivan's re-election prospects.

Despite these allegations, federal Judge Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Senate, maintains her innocence. However, the entire situation is a nightmare for Ms. Peltola and her party. Instead of discussing issues like petrol prices or deep-sea trawling, Ms. Peltola is now compelled to defend the ethics of her staff. Despite the court order, doubts about Alaska's election integrity, fueled by Republicans concerned they might lose the seat, could persist for weeks.

In the past, ballot stacking, although unethical, has not been illegal nor particularly effective. In 2024, a Republican activist in Washington orchestrated a scenario where two Bob Fergusons ran as Democrats in the governor's race against the third Bob Ferguson, who was the state's attorney general and later became the governor.

Alaska's supreme court ultimately ruled that Dan J. Sullivan the retiree was eligible to run. The state's election officials attempted to differentiate between the Sullivans on the ballot to minimize voter confusion. Dan S. Sullivan is identified as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent" on the ballot, while Mr. J. Sullivan is listed separately.

However, Donald Trump's Department of Justice deemed the measures insufficient and filed a lawsuit in federal court to block the certification of the race if the incumbent loses narrowly. Alaska's election officials argued that there is "no legal authority" for the federal government to interfere in its handling of the Dan Sullivans' contest.

Judge Sharon Gleason, appointed by Barack Obama, agreed and dismissed the government's case. An amicus brief from Rick Hasen, an election-law expert from the University of California, Los Angeles, echoed the same sentiment, criticizing the Trump administration's proposal as a "heads we win, tails you lose" scenario.

President Trump, some Alaska Republicans, and the Department of Justice continue to cast doubt on the election's integrity. On his social media platform, Trump referred to the alleged ballot stacking as "A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC". Mike Dunleavy, the outgoing Republican governor of Alaska, has ordered a state investigation into the matter.

The Department of Justice has also issued subpoenas to several Democrats suspected of involvement in the alleged scheme. However, none of the litigation or reporting has uncovered evidence that Mr. Sullivan was bribed to run or that he perjured himself. Ms. Peltola's appeal to voters relies on her no-nonsense, empathetic persona.

An Alaska Native, she grew up fishing on the Kuskokwim River and prefers to identify as an Alaskan rather than a Democrat. Voters met with her in the days before the election expressed their support for her due to her perceived honesty and niceness.