Saudi oil keeps flowing despite attacks, say trackers: Why counting barrels is not easy

Saudi Arabia's oil exports have maintained near wartime levels, according to preliminary ship-tracking data from Vortexa, TankerTrackers.com and Kpler. Despite a series of attacks on the kingdom's energy infrastructure and Iran claiming to have struck commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil exports have held steady. Vortexa reports shipments from the kingdom's western and eastern coasts at 6.5 million barrels per day in October, compared to 6.6 million in September.

TankerTrackers.com estimates 6.99 million barrels, while Kpler shows 5.4 million barrels, below September's levels. The discrepancy in estimates is attributed to factors such as the ease of replacing pipelines, excess storage tanks, refineries being damaged to increase exports, and ships being patched up after mine strikes in the Gulf of Oman.

Red Sea exports, primarily through Yanbu, have increased to about 2.5 million barrels per day, up from 2.4 million in September. The Red Sea is aiding in keeping exports high. However, risks persist, including a recent fire near the Ras Tanura terminal and a reported explosion of a supertanker in the Hormuz Strait. These incidents could impact oil prices, Gulf revenues, and fuel costs in the UAE.

The preliminary data from various trackers highlight the complexity of accurately counting Saudi Arabian oil barrels despite the challenges posed by ongoing attacks and the presence of 'dark fleet' tankers utilizing satellite imagery.