LNG Canada Doubles Capacity as Asia Looks Beyond the Gulf

Last month, Shell, PETRONAS, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corporation, and KOGAS officially greenlit the expansion of the LNG Canada Phase 2 project, which will more than double the plant's output to 28 million tons annually. This move cements Canada's position as a key, long-term LNG supplier to Asian markets. Combined with the upcoming Cedar LNG and Woodfibre projects, Canada could export 33 mtpa of LNG by the end of the decade.

Wood Mackenzie asserts that Canada is in a strong position to meet Asia's rising demand for long-term, low-carbon LNG, thanks to the country's abundant resources, strategic location, and short shipping distances. However, the firm warns that Canada must act quickly to capitalize on this opportunity, as global competition for investment and market share is growing fiercer.

Joshua Ngu, Wood Mackenzie's Asia Pacific Vice Chairman, notes that Canada's resource advantage is genuine, but unlocking its potential hinges on competitiveness, execution, and timely project completion. With Asian LNG demand projected to double to 500 mtpa by 2060, Canada's Pacific terminal in Kitimat offers an attractive alternative to Gulf Coast shipments for Asian buyers.

The Coastal GasLink pipeline delivers discounted, captive gas supplies to LNG Canada, reducing shipping costs and providing a pricing edge. Additionally, Canada's LNG can be produced with lower emissions, catering to net-zero commitments from Japan and South Korea. Despite the country's potential, Wood Mackenzie cautions that Canada will likely fall short of its ambitious 100 mtpa "energy superpower" target, as American projects like CP2 LNG, Commonwealth LNG, and Delfin FLNG 1 are poised to increase U.S. LNG exports.

Moreover, emerging LNG projects in Africa, Latin America, and Australia are set to offer Asian buyers a more diverse portfolio of options.