Arch Manning’s Rough Season Clouds His Draft Stock, Texas’s Investment

Texas holds a precarious position in the 2026 playoff chase following two consecutive defeats, with the spotlight now on its star-studded offense spearheaded by high-priced quarterback Arch Manning. The Longhorns' offense has been statistically dismal under coach Steve Sarkisian, ranking 64th in points per game, 92nd in yards per game, and 104th in yards per play.

Despite the investment in the offense, propelled by Manning, several former blue-chip recruits, and expensive transfers like wide receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers, the team's struggles are glaring. Manning's performance, especially over the past two games, has been a major concern. The starting quarterback has committed three costly turnovers and six turnovers overall, further adding fuel to the criticism.

Earlier this week, Sarkisian dismissed the backlash, emphasizing that Manning can improve, but now questions about his job security have arisen for the first time since his appointment as Texas's starter last season. Backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. is set to receive more first-team reps this week, ahead of the upcoming home game against Ole Miss.

While Lacey has limited experience, he is praised for his abilities. Manning's decline comes after a remarkable finish in 2025, where he led the team to victories in the last three games, boasting 11 total touchdowns and a 94.5 QBR. However, this season's performance contrasts sharply, raising concerns about his NFL prospects, particularly considering the family legacy of his uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, who were drafted as the No. 1 pick.

NFL Draft analysts speculate that Manning's inconsistent decision-making could be holding him back, but his high school ranking, family background, and substantial NIL portfolio have created immense expectations that have not been fully realized.