Arch Manning’s Rough Season Clouds His Draft Stock, Texas’s Investment

Texas's playoff aspirations are in doubt following two straight losses, and its star-studded offense, led by high-priced quarterback Arch Manning, is under scrutiny. The Longhorns' offense is on track to be the poorest on paper under coach Steve Sarkisian. Texas ranks low in points, yards, and yards per play nationally, despite this investment in offense, including Manning, several former blue-chip recruits, and expensive transfers like wide receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers.

Manning's performance has been a focal point. In his last two games, he has thrown three costly turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble) and has made six turnovers overall, intensifying the Longhorns' struggles. Last week, Sarkisian dismissed criticism, hinting that if Manning's last name wasn't Manning, his performance would be lauded.

However, doubts about Manning's job security surfaced for the first time since he was named Texas's starter last season. "Arch can play better for us," Sarkisian said, "I need to see a better version of Arch Manning. I need to see a better version of a lot of guys on our offensive football team right now, but we need to see a better version of him this week."

Backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. is expected to receive more first-team reps this week ahead of Saturday's home game against Ole Miss. Sarkisian confirmed Lacey will get his first-team reps but declined to comment further on the matter. Lacey, a 2025 recruit, had limited playing time last season but showed promise this year. His improvement is seen as crucial for Texas's offensive success.

Manning's inconsistent start contrasts with his strong finish in 2025, when Texas won its last three games, and Manning threw 11 touchdowns without turnovers and had a QBR of 94.5. However, this season, Manning has 11 passing touchdowns, zero rushing touchdowns, six turnovers, and a 59.3 QBR. Analysts suggest Manning's decision-making is holding him back, comparing it to a methodical nature that keeps him conservative when aggression is needed.

Despite his pedigree—rated the top high school prospect in 2023 and securing significant NIL deals—Manning's inconsistent play has raised concerns about his draft stock and future with the Texas program.