Subsidence claims: After drought, ground can shrink, swell or even collapse when it rains—causing damage to homes
A crack appears beside a window after weeks of scorching weather. As much as you might hope the ground beneath your house will recover with the first rain, the effects of a dry summer can continue long after temperatures fall.
During the scorching summer, the ground beneath homes can undergo changes that may lead to subsidence, swelling, or even collapse, causing damage to properties. After experiencing the hottest summer on record, the drought in southeast England caused a significant moisture deficit in the soil, with rainfall being only 61% of the normal September amount.
This deficit resulted in a staggering £307 million in subsidence payouts in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, with individual claims reaching £20,000. The disparity in damage is due to the uneven contraction and settlement of clay-rich soils, which can cause one part of a house to settle more than another, leading to cracks in walls.
Trees can also exacerbate local drying as their roots extract water from the ground. When rain comes, some clays expand, pushing foundations upward, while the recovery process is neither complete nor instantaneous. The displacement of salt and clays within soils can make them stiffer but also susceptible to sudden subsidence when large volumes of water flow through them.
Different layers of soil have varying capacities to support loads, and the presence of loosely cemented soils and soluble rocks can exacerbate the problem. Although geological maps can indicate potential hazards, they cannot predict whether a specific crack is caused by ground movement. Soil is a complex ecosystem that supports plants, locks in carbon, carries rain toward groundwater, and provides habitats for various organisms.
Drought and reduced microbial activity can weaken soil structure, while intense rainfall can increase erosion risk. Homeowners should monitor for new or widening cracks, ensure gutters and drains are functioning, and seek advice from insurers and qualified surveyors if movement is observed. Longer-term solutions include better ground management, careful drainage, sensible land and tree management, and the health of soils that can retain and carry water without creating new hazards.
By 2070, due to climate change, more than 1.8 million British properties could be at risk of significant ground movement, with the figure potentially rising to 4.2 million if emissions remain high.
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