Sabadell recompone su accionariado con la entrada de fondos de largo plazo

Sabadell has experienced a rollercoaster in its shareholder structure over recent years, with institutional investors changing over time depending on the bank's situation. Now, capital is shifting again, not only due to the entrance of BPCE from France but also with the arrival of long-term funds, according to market sources. These investors aim to generate profits, but their buying strategy differs from others.

Rather than seeking quick gains from a specific event and selling shortly after, they look for companies to invest in without a defined exit horizon and are not affected by external conditions that could cause volatility. Funds like Prudential, Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, Deka Investment, CaixaBank AM, and Janus Henderson have joined the shareholder structure in recent months, replacing others who were more active during the hostile takeover bid.

This period was the most intense in changes to the shareholder structure, with purchases from opportunistic funds taking advantage of the situation, but also the sale of the British subsidiary TSB to Santander and an extraordinary dividend. The high payout following the TSB sale also posed a risk for the most stable funds, as indicated by the sources.

Sabadell paid nearly 2.5 billion euros in May, distributing 50 cents per share, with the option to repurchase afterward. The stock held steady, just like it did during BBVA's hostile takeover bid. The threat of downward pressure from David Martínez's 3.5% stake, which sold almost half in July, did not cause a convulsion on the stock exchange.

Sabadell's stock has risen by 31% since the end of the BBVA takeover bid and more than 23% so far this year, making it 498% higher since 2022. Several long-term funds believe the stock still has room to move and are entering now that the extraordinary events have ended and the stock has shown its resilience. Financial sources say they were waiting for this moment to give the green light to buy.

Two views exist amid doubts expressed by some in the market about Sabadell's future solely in one geographic area, lacking the two elements that this market rewards: scale and businesses, according to JPMorgan in its latest report. The new shareholders are drawn to the proposal of the entity, as indicated by market sources. The recurring dividends Sabadell has committed to paying, along with the distribution of excess capital starting from 13%, are key pieces of the new strategy, just like the improvement of return on tangible equity (ROTE) to the goal of 16% by 2027 in the financial plan.

The latest news is the boost from the results even after the TSB sale and the forecast of further increases. This is what Deutsche Bank expects after presenting the first half accounts. The commitment of Sabadell to return the excess capital above 13% sets the stock's profitability far ahead of CaixaBank and Bankinter and slightly below Unicaja for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, according to UBS.

Even excluding the extraordinary payment from TSB, Sabadell is expected to comfortably distribute between 75% and 80% of the profits in the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, adds the analysts. The entrance of BPCE changes the scenario, according to market sources, as the new partner will provide stability to the stock and a slight bullish pressure, as it can still increase its position from the current 7% to 9.9%.