JPMorgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over next decade
JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time but warned that volatility and unstable correlations limit its role in investment portfolios.
JPMorgan has projected Bitcoin to outperform both US stocks and gold over the next decade in its long-term capital market outlook. However, the bank cautions that Bitcoin's high volatility limits its role in diversifying investment portfolios at present. JPMorgan's latest 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects an annualized return of 10% for Bitcoin, 7.5% for large-cap US stocks, and 5.5% for gold.
The projections are part of JPMorgan's annual outlook covering over 200 assets to assist investors in planning their portfolios. The bank describes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin's annualized return at 16.6% in its bullish scenario, while its bear case predicts an annualized loss of 11.2%.
These calculations took into account Bitcoin supply growth relative to money supply, its potential alongside gold, and network adoption. Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, welcomed Bitcoin's inclusion in the report, noting how it progressed from being ignored, laughed at, fought against, to being added to the Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper with a prediction of being the best-performing asset over the next decade.
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