United States Dollar Index surrenders opening gains as AI risks continue to weigh

The US Dollar (USD) has shed its early gains, as concerns around Artificial Intelligence (AI) continue to cast a shadow over the currency. On Monday, in Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed flat around 101.80, despite briefly touching a high of 102.01 during the session. French bond yields have surged by 1.55% to hover near 4.85%, nearing a two-decade peak of 5%.

French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the country's escalating cost of living protests on Sunday, following one of the most tumultuous days of civil unrest in recent years. These protests have since spread to other European cities, including Lisbon and Milan. While the US Dollar initially benefited from the unrest, as it is often seen as a safe-haven currency, it has failed to maintain this advantage due to ongoing AI-related uncertainties.

Strategists at OCBC have noted that "AI has supported US growth, equities, yields and the USD." However, they caution that if the AI investment cycle slows, "those same supports could reverse, leaving the Dollar vulnerable even in a risk-off environment." The analysts stress that "the USD does not always benefit from risk aversion," particularly when shocks are US-centric.

In such cases, "Treasury safe-haven demand can push yields lower even as weaker US asset returns reduce the relative appeal of the USD." Despite these apprehensions, OCBC views the current AI-related jitters as a minor setback rather than a significant breakdown in the broader investment story. Traders remain optimistic that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady during their upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The Fed's recent signals suggest no urgency for rate hikes, as several officials have expressed confidence in maintaining the current rates. Technical analysis indicates that the Dollar Index Spot trades at 101.87, supported by a rising 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 101.65. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57 suggests ongoing positive momentum, without indicating overbought conditions.