Official data show China is dumping more U.S. Treasury debt. But it may actually be a stealth buyer, with a big stash suspiciously piling up in Canada

China, once the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, has been reducing its massive stockpile in recent years. This has led to concerns about de-dollarization but official data may not accurately reflect Beijing's true portfolio. As of August 2022, China's holdings were reported at $591 billion, a drop from $700 billion a year earlier and the lowest level in 18 years.

However, the data primarily comes from U.S.-based custodians and broker-dealers, potentially omitting holdings held overseas. This has led to skepticism among China watchers who point to suspicious increases in Treasury holdings in other countries, like Canada and Belgium, that align with China's reported declines. Canada's Treasury holdings soared to $465 billion in August, a significant jump from $169 billion in the same month five years ago.

Similarly, Belgium's holdings grew from $228 billion to $490.5 billion over the same period. Adjusting for China's holdings in Canadian and European custodial centers, estimates suggest China's total U.S. financial holdings could be as high as $500 billion, with a conservative estimate at around $300 billion. Despite China's trade tensions with the U.S., the country posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, the highest on record and growing faster than global goods trade.

This trade surplus may lead China to shift its Treasury holdings to non-U.S. custodians, potentially leaving the exact extent of its U.S. holdings unclear.