Netflix Stock Has Gained in the Fourth Quarter in 17 of the Last 24 Years
Last year's 22% fourth-quarter fall began with one rough day in October.
Netflix stock has seen a good record in fourth quarters over the past two and a half decades, with the shares ending up 17 times out of 24 years. This period spans from the last closing price in September to the final close in December, adjusted for stock splits. Typically, the median fourth-quarter return during these 24 years is around 12%. However, the most recent fourth quarter saw a loss of about 22%, with Netflix shares falling from near $120 to under $94.
The latest quarter starts at a lower point, trading at roughly $72 as of now, which is still 42% below its 52-week high of $124.86. Netflix's third-quarter results are expected to be released on October 20. Historically, the company's reaction to these reports has often set the direction for the quarter. Since 2004, there have been 14 one-day moves of 10% or more in the shares just after the October report, with 13 of those years seeing the stock close the quarter in the same direction.
In recent years, Netflix's performance during the fourth quarter has varied. After the October reports in 2022, 2023, and 2024, the stock experienced significant gains of 13%, 16%, and 11% the following day, finishing the quarters up around 25%, 29%, and 26%, respectively. However, last year was an exception, as shares dropped 10% the day after the October 2025 report, when an expense related to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities reduced Netflix's third-quarter operating margin to 28%, below the forecasted 31.5%.
The stock continued to decline into December, when Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros., a deal that was later canceled. The quarter ended with a 22% loss.
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