Melaka polls could determine if Umno needs PAS for GE16, says analyst

Barisan Nasional's (Umno) potential silence on a possible agreement with PAS for the upcoming Melaka state election could indicate their intention to evaluate the party's electoral performance independently, suggests Ilham Centre analyst Hisommudin Bakar. According to Mazlan Ali, a professor at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Umno's performance in the Melaka polls will likely determine its decision to form a nationwide alliance ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).

He explained, "If Umno can win on its own, it will be in a stronger position to decide how much it needs PAS for GE16."

The analyst also stated that Umno is hesitant about forming an alliance with PAS for the November 14 polls because it is confident of retaining the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election. Umno Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi previously mentioned that while Umno aims to defend its 21 seats, it is open to discussions with potential partners concerning the remaining seven constituencies.

The party is also prepared for potential seat swaps, but the main concern is whether these would involve PAS strongholds, and how many seats PAS would be willing to cede to Barisan Nasional.

Hisommudin Bakar attributes Umno's silence to concerns over whether cooperation would benefit Barisan Nasional or strengthen PAS, which competes for the same pool of Malay voters. He questioned, "Umno needs to assess whether cooperation would help revive the party or give PAS a boost." Additionally, BN's recent victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls, where they secured 48 of the 56 seats contested in Johor and 18 of the 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan, were partly due to PAS voters seeking to vote out the Pakatan Harapan coalition.

The analyst believes that by going solo, BN risks facing three-cornered contests that cost it seats during the 2018 and 2022 general elections. However, Hisommudin notes that Umno's silence allows it to keep its options open while weighing the pros and cons of forming an alliance with any party and negotiating seat allocations. Nonetheless, Jayum Jawan of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia believes Umno has little reason to seek an alliance following BN's successes in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, as the party appears to be "on the rebound."

He suggested that an alliance with PAS could slow Umno's revival by forcing it to give up seats it could win independently. Jayum also dismissed suggestions that Umno feared PAS as a national rival, acknowledging that PAS has enough influence to demand concessions in future negotiations.