Iran Faces Rising Threat From Within as Baluch Insurgency Escalates

Iran's southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, along the Afghanistan and Pakistan borders, has seen a surge in violence recently. This region, home to Iran's marginalized Baluch minority, has long been plagued by a low-level insurgency. Separatist groups and Islamist militants are now collaborating to challenge the Iranian state, according to experts.

The escalating insurgency has added to Iran's security concerns, which are already strained by conflicts with the United States and Israel and potential future US combat operations. Senior Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi warns that localized insurgent activity could escalate into a broader security threat for Tehran.

In recent weeks, Baluch armed groups have taken responsibility for hit-and-run attacks, roadside bombs, and shootings targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Basij paramilitary force, and local police across the province. On October 14, a police officer and Basij commander were killed in Mehrestan. The IRGC reported one of its members was killed in Zahedan on October 13, and gun battles erupted in Taftan on October 13.

In response, authorities have intensified security operations, including preemptive raids on suspected insurgent cells. Iran executed a prominent Baluch militant, Omar Dorostaran, on October 12, who was convicted of armed rebellion and terrorist activities. Authorities believe these terrorist groups are acting on plans devised by Israel and the United States to destabilize Iran's borders.

Sistan-Baluchistan, the second-largest province in Iran, is strategically located near Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and Pakistan's Balochistan Province, which has also experienced a long-standing insurgency. The province is also home to Chabahar, Iran's sole port with direct access to the open ocean, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, a key flashpoint in the conflict with the US and Israel.

In December 2025, four separate Baluch groups merged into the Mobarizoun Popular Front, indicating closer coordination among militant factions. Jaish al-Adl, a Baluch separatist militant group designated as a terrorist organization by Iran and the US, is believed to be operating from Pakistan and is considered the most potent Baluch armed group fighting Tehran. Iran accuses the US and Israel of arming the group.

Iran faces multiple pressures at home and abroad, and armed groups may be seizing the opportunity to expand their operations. Baluch minority members, primarily Sunni Muslims in a Shi'a-majority Iran, have long faced discrimination and violence from authorities. The province has seen a disproportionate number of executions, with Baluch accounting for around 20% of all executions in the country.

The government's security-focused response to Baluch demands has contributed to distrust among the population. The combination of poverty, religious and ethnic discrimination, and a lack of political representation creates deep dissatisfaction in the province.