El auge de AfD amenaza la capacidad de Alemania para atraer la mano de obra que necesita

Germany is facing a growing need for foreign workers to compensate for its aging population, but the surge of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the entire country and its first-ever regional government victory due to a win in Saxony-Anhalt may complicate efforts to attract skilled personnel from other nations.

Shortage of manpower for economic development is evident, yet the ultranationalist party opposes the influx of workers from other places. AfD's regional election program encourages returning Germans to Saxony-Anhalt to address the labor shortage, which currently stands at nearly 14,000 in this eastern state and is expected to rise to 32,000 by 2031, according to a study by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH).

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, Saxony-Anhalt had a population slightly above three million. Over the past decade, it has lost nearly 130,000 inhabitants, bringing the current population to around 2.1 million. AfD aims to attract native population returnees through economic incentives and support for housing or childcare places.

However, economists doubt these measures' effectiveness. The IWH warns that an immigrant-hostile policy could raise the labor deficit in the state to 46,000 by the end of the next legislature if AfD manages to form a government. This government is expected after Tobias Rausch's recent election as the first far-right president of a German parliament since the Nazi era.

Moreover, it should be noted that not only foreigners would be reluctant to settle in the region, but some Germans are also wary of AfD's rise in extremism. "A xenophobic policy would significantly aggravate the labor shortage in Saxony-Anhalt," says IWH president Rein Gropp in the study. "The state would lose substantially in well-being if it encourages anti-immigrant sentiment.

Thousands of additional job positions would remain unfilled. The state would suffer a notable decline in welfare." The shortage of manpower would be harder to fill in sectors like food production, hospitality, civil engineering, logistics, medicine, and dentistry. For example, one in five doctors in Saxony-Anhalt is foreign. The state, not only requires skilled manpower but also the rest of the country.

The aging population, low birth rate, and retirement of the baby-boomer generation pose a significant challenge. According to a recent study by the German Economics Institute, Germany could face a shortage of around 723,000 skilled workers by 2029, almost double the 430,000 shortfall in 2025. The biggest deficit might be in sales personnel, followed by childcare, social work, pedagogical, and healthcare professions.

Herbert Brücker, a professor at the Humboldt University of Berlin and director of the International Migration, Integration, and Labor Market Research department at the reputable scientific center IAB, explains via phone that currently, Germany is losing between 430,000 and 440,000 working-age individuals annually due to demographic change, meaning that to maintain a constant workforce supply, it would need a net immigration of that magnitude, around 430,000 people.

Instead of a restrictive migration policy as AfD advocates, Germany needs a "selective attraction of labor force and the liberalization of labor immigration." Incentives like encouraging older people to work beyond retirement age or reducing the high rate of part-time work might seem challenging, but they would not compensate for the massive demographic gap, according to the expert.

The good reputation Germany had as a place to work, even undermined by the economic crisis, would also be put at risk. While foreign workers might not leave, people considering emigration would be less inclined to come. However, as Brücker points out, alternatives are not very appealing either, as "right-wing populist parties are practically everywhere," yet Germany has been one of the few countries with reliable stability for a long time.

AfD currently leads in federal election polls with 30% support, followed by conservatives with 18.5%, according to the latest INSA survey. In the general elections last year, AfD was the second most voted party with 20.8% of the votes, behind the CDU (22.6%). The economist Wido Geis-Thöne, an expert in migration issues at the IW economic institute, says that Germany is currently facing a severe industrial crisis.

It is uncertain how Germany will cope with it, and it is also unknown if AI could potentially take over human jobs in production processes. However, broadly speaking, to keep the German economy growing, foreign workers will still be needed.