Economy still in low-risk credit environment, credit-to-GDP gap remains negative – BoG

The Bank of Ghana has reported that the economy remains in a low-risk credit environment as of the first eight months of 2026. Despite the continuous growth in credit, the rate of growth is slower compared to the growth of the economy itself. This is reflected in a negative credit-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gap, which suggests there is no excessive credit accumulation and limited systemic risks.

The Central Bank's October 2026 Banking Sector Development Report suggests that this positive trend allows for a measured increase in credit to further stimulate the real sector of the economy.

The Bank of Ghana attributes the recovery in credit growth to the robustness of the banking sector, which continues to enable financial intermediation. The favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to maintain the recovery in private sector credit without straining overall financial stability. The macro-financial risk assessment indicates a projected softening of risks by end-September 2026 compared to the same period last year.

This reduction in risk is due to lower inflation, eased lending conditions in advanced economies, a declining fiscal deficit, reduced inflation, stable exchange rates, and decreasing public debt in Ghana.

On the domestic side, risks have also decreased, largely due to improved debt-servicing capacity of both corporate and household sectors. The Bank of Ghana expects these risks to remain stable in the near term. However, they could change if there are geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which could affect the domestic economy and the corporate and household sectors.

Despite this possibility, the Bank remains optimistic about the near-term outlook for the domestic economy. This positive outlook is underpinned by the forecasted low inflation levels, a significant reserve build-up, and improved financing conditions.