Economy still in low-risk credit environment, credit-to-GDP gap remains negative – BoG

The credit-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gap remained negative in the first eight months of 2026, indicating a low-risk credit environment for the economy, according to the Bank of Ghana. While credit growth has been continuous, it has been slower compared to the economy's expansion. The Bank of Ghana's October 2026 Banking Sector Development Report suggests that the negative gap means there is no excessive credit build-up, limiting systemic risks and providing space for controlled credit expansion to bolster the real sector.

The recovery in credit growth is attributed to the robust banking sector, which continues to facilitate financial intermediation. Favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to sustain private sector credit growth without putting financial stability at risk. A macro-financial risk assessment indicated a projected moderation in risks by the end of September 2026 compared to the same period in the previous year.

Risks from the global economic environment decreased due to lower inflation and easing lending conditions in advanced economies. Domestically, risks also reduced, influenced by declining fiscal deficits, lower inflation, exchange rate stability, and falling public debt. The risks from the corporate and household sectors also dropped, supported by enhanced debt-servicing capacity.

Looking ahead, risks are expected to remain stable, although they could change based on Middle East geopolitical developments. The Bank of Ghana remains optimistic about the near-term outlook for the domestic economy, citing low inflation, substantial reserve build-up, and improved financing conditions.