Brazil's right embraces election betting odds amid polls scepticism

The Brazilian right has turned to election betting odds on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, as a gauge of voter sentiment despite skepticism toward polls. This comes as the election, scheduled for October 25, enters its second round, pitting right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro against incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Influencer Paulo Figueiredo declared on X, "We are going to get rid of Lula forever," before the first round, sharing a Polymarket chart indicating a 63 percent probability of victory for Flavio Bolsonaro.

Despite initial opinion polls forecasting a narrow victory for Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro emerged around two points behind in the first round. Recent polls once again show a tight race, with Flavio Bolsonaro leading by about two points, within the margin of error. Polymarket's odds currently favor Flavio Bolsonaro with a 77 percent chance of winning.

The platform clarifies that bets on events, such as the election, are not polls or projections and do not endorse any candidate. However, experts caution against using prediction markets as a barometer of electoral support. Unlike polls, which capture voting intentions at the moment of questioning, prediction markets record financial transactions and reflect expectations, with bettors potentially repeating the same bet multiple times.

Brazil's finance ministry has banned Polymarket and similar platforms, citing concerns about potential household debt. Lula's administration issued the ban in April, but users can circumvent it using VPNs. Since the ban, Brazil's finance ministry is monitoring the platform's impact and may impose additional measures.