Dollar heads for weekly loss as Fed hike bets fade, AI jitters linger

The dollar weakened on Friday, poised for its first weekly decline in over a month versus the euro and yen, due to waning anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate hike and ongoing worries about an AI-induced equity sell-off. Initially buoyant consumer and producer price figures this week gave way to Fed officials' comments suggesting no rush to tighten monetary policy further, steadying Treasury yields and undermining the dollar's appeal.

AI stocks plummeted this week, pulling parts of the credit market down as investors concerned about data center profitability bet heavily on the sector. Matt Weller, StoneX's global head of market research in Michigan, noted the unusual connection between the dollar and AI trade, which typically fuels a safe-haven dollar rally during tech stock sell-offs.

The dollar index, tracking the currency's performance against six peers, slipped 0.17% to 101.87, tracking a 0.35% weekly decline. The British pound and Swiss franc led gains, with the latter buoyed by safe-haven demand and expectations that Switzerland might avoid cutting rates even in a lower-rate environment. The Swiss franc surged over 1.4% over the past two sessions, while the dollar lost 0.25% against the franc, falling 0.67% for the week.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no hints about future rate decisions at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, stating there is insufficient support for a rate hike in October. While the euro edged up 0.08% to $1.1227, marking a weekly gain of 0.23%, markets assign an 83% probability to the Fed maintaining rates unchanged later this month, up from 49% a month prior.