Could Shopify Stock Repeat Amazon's Run Since 2007?
Key PointsShopify's revenue in the last 12 months was around $13.3 billion, near Amazon's $14.8 billion in 2007.
Amazon shares soared over 50 times their original value since 2007, prompting questions about which e-commerce company could replicate that success. Shopify (SHOP), trading around $170, is an e-commerce software company nearing a new record for its stock price. Shopify's 2025 revenue hit about $13.3 billion, compared to Amazon's $14.8 billion in 2007.
Shopify's growth has been impressive, with GMV (gross merchandise value) expanding 20% in 2023, 24% in 2024, and 29% in 2025. Shopify's free cash flow for the past year was around $2.4 billion, more than double Amazon's 2007 free cash flow of $1.18 billion. Shopify's margins appear more aligned with a software company rather than a retailer, with Shopify processing 68% of GMV in the second quarter, up from 64% a year earlier.
Shopify's market value is about $218 billion, or around 92 times the free cash flow it generated in the last 12 months, compared to Amazon's market value of nearly $39 billion or around 33 times its free cash flow in 2007. The high valuation of Shopify suggests that investors are paying a significant premium for the expected growth, similar to Amazon's situation in 2007.
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