Could Shopify Stock Repeat Amazon's Run Since 2007?
The e-commerce platform is about as big now as Amazon was in 2007. But does the stock give buyers the same room to grow?
Amazon shares soared over 50 times their original value since 2007, prompting questions about which e-commerce company could replicate that success. Shopify (SHOP), trading around $170, is an e-commerce software company nearing a new record for its stock price. Shopify's 2025 revenue hit about $13.3 billion, compared to Amazon's $14.8 billion in 2007.
Shopify's growth has been impressive, with GMV (gross merchandise value) expanding 20% in 2023, 24% in 2024, and 29% in 2025. Shopify's free cash flow for the past year was around $2.4 billion, more than double Amazon's 2007 free cash flow of $1.18 billion. Shopify's margins appear more aligned with a software company rather than a retailer, with Shopify processing 68% of GMV in the second quarter, up from 64% a year earlier.
Shopify's market value is about $218 billion, or around 92 times the free cash flow it generated in the last 12 months, compared to Amazon's market value of nearly $39 billion or around 33 times its free cash flow in 2007. The high valuation of Shopify suggests that investors are paying a significant premium for the expected growth, similar to Amazon's situation in 2007.
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