Alberta referendum expected to bring finality, but also more questions on separation

Albertans are set to vote on Monday in a referendum that could lead to either remaining in Canada or holding another binding referendum on quitting. The vote is expected to bring finality to the separation debate, but also more questions about the future of Alberta's political landscape.

Premier Danielle Smith expects the majority to vote to stay in Confederation, but separatist leaders contest this. Political watchers are divided on whether separation will now be a permanent feature of Alberta's politics, similar to Quebec's situation. Experts suggest that as long as Alberta feels alienated from Canada, the movement will persist.

Alberta's independence movement is driven by western alienation rather than nationalist sentiment, unlike Quebec's. This makes it difficult to predict the long-term future of the movement. The referendum is seen as a way for Alberta to gain political leverage with Ottawa, similar to Quebec's "knife at the throat strategy." However, former UCP premier Jason Kenney warns that this approach could lead to economic consequences similar to those faced by Quebec.

Political science professor Graeme Young of the University of Glasgow believes Alberta's separatist campaign will likely deflate with a different federal government in power. He also notes that Alberta's movement lacks the same depth of national identity as Scotland's independence campaign. Young suggests that the Scottish referendum was defeated by uncertainty about the economics of independence, which Alberta's movement might also face.