Bell: Danielle Smith's message for Alberta separatists on eve of the referendum

In Monday's vote, Albertans will have the opportunity to decide whether to remain part of Canada or to hold another binding referendum on separation. According to polls, it's expected that a majority of Albertans will choose to stay in Confederation, and Premier Danielle Smith anticipates everyone will accept this outcome and move forward.

However, the independence movement in Alberta is not convinced. Political scientists are divided on whether separation, previously a fringe notion, will now become a permanent fixture in Alberta's political scene, similar to Quebec's experience.

Julian Castro-Rea, a political-science professor at the University of Alberta, argues that as long as Alberta feels disconnected from the Canadian capital, the movement will continue to thrive. "Even if the referendum is lost, the westernization will still be around, because it's kind of a way which, traditionally, Albertans have related to the rest of Canada," he says. Castro-Rea believes that western alienation will persist indefinitely.

Comparisons to the Brexit and Scottish independence movements have been made, but Quebec is the most prominent analogy. Quebec, with its long history of francophone culture, is different from Alberta, which was formed by the division of the Northwest Territories in 1905. Alberta's separatists are driven by western alienation rather than a deep-rooted nationalist sentiment, making it challenging to predict the movement's long-term future.

Premier Smith, who voted to stay in Canada, has criticized former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's policies as oppressive to Western Canada's sovereignty and its energy-driven economy. However, current Prime Minister Mark Carney views Alberta's bid for secession as a "dangerous bluff" and expects a decisive result to settle the matter.

Andrew McDougall, an associate political science professor at the University of Toronto, sees the referendum as a means to gain political leverage with Ottawa, much like Quebec's "knife at the throat" strategy.

However, former UCP Premier Jason Kenney argues that threatening to separate can lead to a "have-not" province, similar to Quebec, rather than a "have" province like Alberta. He warns that the economic consequences of a subsequent separation vote would be catastrophic. Political science professor Graeme Young, from the University of Glasgow in Scotland, suggests that Alberta's separatist campaign may deflate if a different federal political party comes to power.

Young also believes that Alberta's movement cannot draw from the same wellspring of national identity as Scotland, as it lacks a centuries-old connection to Quebec.