Crecen las apuestas de que la Reserva Federal mantendrá los tipos de interés en octubre

Kevin Warsh, a member of the Federal Reserve, stated that economic conditions have broadly aligned with the authorities' expectations since the September interest rate hike. During an International Monetary Fund summit in Bangkok, Warsh declined to predict his plans for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy vote but acknowledged that economic conditions have been generally in line with the Fed's forecasts since the first interest rate increase in three years in September.

Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions at their meeting on October 28th have fluctuated this week, with bets on an interest rate hike reaching 55% after U.S. inflation figures surpassed forecasts, before falling back. Following Warsh's comments, the odds of an interest rate hike fell further, from around 27% to about 15% on Friday, according to Federal Reserve funds futures.

Combined with recent statements from other Fed members, Warsh's remarks suggest the committee may pause in October, according to economists from Goldman Sachs, who also expect the Fed to raise rates at the year's end. The U.S. dollar slipped 0.1% against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners after Warsh's remarks, while futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

Warsh's statements come after U.S. inflation hit 3.7% in September, surpassing expectations amid rising fuel prices due to the Iran conflict. September's data also showed core inflation —excluding volatile food and energy prices— rising 2.6% compared to 2.4% in August. Warsh refused to comment on the Fed's response at its October meeting.