Japan’s 2026 rice harvest projected to fall 1%

Japan predicts a slight decline in its 2026 rice harvest, according to the country's agriculture ministry. The estimated yield for the upcoming season is 7.4 million tons, a 1% reduction compared to the previous year's production of 7.47 million tons. Despite this slight decrease, officials remain optimistic as supply is anticipated to comfortably outpace demand, potentially leading to further reductions in rice prices.

The forecast is based on the actual harvest and grain counts as of September 25, when approximately 60% of the rice had already been harvested. However, the survey has been delayed in some regions due to prolonged rains and lack of sunshine throughout September, which could influence the final results when released in mid-November.

A ministry official stated that the actual harvest might be lower once the weather impacts are factored in, but emphasized that the supply is expected to remain sufficient to meet demand. In recent months, private-sector rice inventories have reached record highs due to the release of government-stocked rice since March of the previous year and increased production.

Last month, the ministry made a decision to repurchase 210,000 tons of rice from the market to replenish its stockpiles. Nevertheless, prices have continued to drop, prompting producers and distributors to request additional buybacks. As of now, the government's rice stockpiles are significantly below the ideal level of around 1 million tons.

Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yana acknowledged the situation at a news conference, expressing the government's commitment to restoring the stockpile level while carefully balancing supply and demand.