History Says Nvidia Stock Usually Rises in the Fourth Quarter -- It Has in 20 of the Last 27
Two of the seven down years erased over half the stock's value. What went wrong?
During the last two decades, Nvidia's shares have historically performed well in the fourth quarter of the year, with 20 out of the 27 years seeing gains. However, the current quarter marks Nvidia's highest price ever. Two previous fourth quarters, in 2000 and 2018, were exceptions, with Nvidia's stock plummeting by 60% and 52%, respectively.
These declines were primarily due to a broader market downturn and overstocked inventory, not company-specific issues. Nvidia's fiscal year ends in late January, so the company's quarterly reports, which include revenue forecasts, are typically released in mid-to-late November, halfway through the calendar quarter. The upcoming quarterly report for fiscal Q3 2026 is expected to show a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.0 billion.
Nvidia's stock trades at 15 times the consensus earnings estimate for the upcoming fiscal year. Despite the historical trend of strong fourth-quarter performance, investors should consider the upcoming report and the broader market context before making an investment decision.
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