Barclays avisa del 'riesgo Vox' para el coste de la deuda de España

Barclays warns of potential risks to Spain's debt costs from a potential ruling party coalition of PP and Vox. This scenario, if Vox secures substantial concessions to join the PP government after the November 29th elections, could slow Spain's fiscal consolidation path. Barclays suggests this would only occur if Vox achieves significant agreements to join PP, forcing the latter's more orthodox economic and fiscal agenda.

The main risks to Spanish bonds in this scenario could be an aggressive anti-immigration stance or tax cuts without corresponding spending reductions. However, Barclays believes the PP-led government is more likely to receive support, especially if it adopts a centrist-d right approach and limits concessions to Vox. The potential influence of Vox on Spanish political unity is a concern, particularly reminiscent of France's situation with Marine Le Pen's potential presidential victory.

Citi economists also watch for the impact of a right-wing party like Vox on Spain's economic growth and immigration control. Barclays maintains that a central scenario of a Spain leaning heavily towards the far right with strong VOx influence is unlikely. They believe the next government will most likely be led by a centrist-right or center-left party, allowing for continued fiscal consolidation.

Any negative impact on Spain's borrowing costs would likely come from reduced appetite for European debt amid volatility in French bonds due to political and fiscal uncertainty.