A Cold New World in Riyadh

Disasters can reveal hidden truths, yet the Houthi fighters who have governed northern Yemen for a decade appeared initially more like an irritant to Saudi Arabia rather than a serious threat. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was busy courting tech and AI executives, promoting Riyadh as a burgeoning tourism hub. However, on Saturday, a Houthi missile hit two terminals at the capital's principal airport, causing fires, collapsing ceiling tiles, and sending terrified passengers fleeing.

Pilgrims en route to Mecca walked through blood-soaked corridors. Though Houthi assaults on the kingdom were not unprecedented, Saturday's assault on Riyadh hinted at a different level of capability. The Houthis demonstrated a knack for evading Saudi missile defenses by deploying coordinated waves of drone swarms, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

Saudi Arabia now finds itself in a precarious position, with leaders scrambling between fortified palaces. A friend in Riyadh expressed "total disbelief," remarking, "I don’t think people thought this could happen to them." The crown prince's aspirations for economic and social reform, or even attracting foreign investment, seem jeopardized if such chaos becomes commonplace.

The Houthis have become increasingly obstinate, and Saudi Arabia's capacity to contain them appears increasingly limited. Experts agree that diplomatic solutions appear unlikely. Adam Baron, a fellow specializing in Yemen and the Gulf at the New America Foundation, stated, "It is starting to look as if there is no diplomatic third way."

The Saudis might have to either push the Houthis militarily back or accept a settlement that would leave the Houthis in control of Yemen. While a sustained ground offensive might be necessary, Saudi Arabia lacks the necessary ground forces. They rely on Yemen's fragmented government and lack the resources for a prolonged conflict.

Last month, the Houthis seized control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital oil route, prompting a Saudi-led offensive to reclaim the territory. Despite some successes, the Houthis escalated their firepower, including targeting the Riyadh airport. The Saudis hope to form a larger coalition to combat the Houthis but face skepticism from potential allies.

Turkey and Egypt, while willing to assist in defending Saudi borders, are hesitant to engage in a full-scale war to reclaim northern Yemen. The Turks recall their past defeats in Yemen, and Egypt's involvement in a similar conflict during the 1960s is often referred to as Egypt's Vietnam. Saudi Arabia could seek a settlement with the Houthis for peace, but recent negotiations have shown little progress.

The UN has been mediating talks since 2012, leading to a 2022 truce, but the Houthis have grown increasingly aggressive in their demands. Iran, meanwhile, has been instrumental in training and arming the Houthis, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has advisors in the conflict. The Houthis appear to be leveraging Chinese-supplied technology to enhance their drone capabilities.

This complex web of alliances and ambitions makes achieving a stable resolution with the Houthis more challenging. The Houthis' steadfast rejection of Saudi Arabia's legitimacy and their demands for the kingdom to withdraw support from the south, lift sanctions, and pay reparations have left many Saudis without hope for a satisfactory resolution.